Economic forecasting is most difficult. Business conditions are in constant flux. And it’s tough to know what is going to happen domestically because of politics that change, sometimes drastically, every two years in the House of Representatives and six years in the Senate.
You also have complex interrelationships across countries, some very volatile in their political makeups. Any one country, in any one region, can materially affect the forecast for what we expect for the U.S.
Short-term changes are certainly far more difficult. Entire global scenarios change overnight!
Nevertheless, much planning and budgeting that our government relies on, that affects business, is based on such economic forecasting. No wonder government deficit estimates are usually far off Particularly, when politicians fib to fit their promises to reality.
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