Economic Forecasting of the world economy is most difficult to make.
Business conditions are in a constant state of flux. Besides, it’s tough to know what is going to happen in a country domestically because of politics that change, sometimes drastically, every two years in the House of Representatives and six years in the Senate.
You also have complex interrelationships across countries, some very volatile in their political makeups. Any one country, in any one region can materially affect the forecast for what we expect for the U.S.
Short-term changes are certainly far more difficult. Entire global scenarios can change almost overnight!
Nevertheless, so much planning and budgeting that our government relies on, that affects business, is based on such economic forecasting. Is it any wonder that government estimates of deficits are usually so far off?
Particularly, when politicians fib to fit their promises to reality?
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