Sunday, December 11, 2011

Future Events Markets?

Some businesses have created a futures market on subjects of importance to their companies. They feel that certain points of view, though a gamble, can be anticipated or predicted, if the gamblers or speculators have no inherent bias in their choices.

Future projections on business concerns always are difficult to estimate. If any can be predicted with more independent accuracy, they would be immensely practical.

However, for such markets to have value, they must have lots of independent input. Sampling should be efficient and unbiased.

I find that is almost impractical in most business projections. However, futures markets may have their place in foretelling political outcomes and general marketing concepts. ( See the Earl J Weinreb NewsHole® comments.)

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